Predictions · Game console bridge

Live analysis desk

Game `/live` merges μgrad + Bloomberg with Train context here

Use this page for live pipeline architecture and the Bloomberg relay panel below. Use the Game app for side-by-side iframes: serve sports-field-ugrad.html from uvspeed web/, set NEXT_PUBLIC_UGRAD_SPORTS_URL (or NEXT_PUBLIC_UGRAD_TOOLS_DECK_URL), run browser-page/server.py (default port 8765), set NEXT_PUBLIC_BLOOMBERG_CHAT_URL. HTTPS hosts cannot embed http://127.0.0.1; use a tunnel or same-origin proxy when needed.

Captions desk (paper + relay) Bloomberg relay on this page Live pipeline table Hop topology

What merges where

Train (this site) — static Erika catalog, listing profiles, hop/pipeline copy, Bloomberg relay instructions.
Game /live — μgrad embed + Bloomberg chat embed + champion / buy-in UI (non-executing demo).
Next step — feed real contract rows from data/catalog.json into the Game trending grid when you are ready to wire cross-repo data.

Game env (Next)

NEXT_PUBLIC_UGRAD_SPORTS_URL: Full URL to served μgrad sports field (preferred).
NEXT_PUBLIC_UGRAD_TOOLS_DECK_URL: Fallback tools deck HTML origin.
NEXT_PUBLIC_BLOOMBERG_CHAT_URL: e.g. http://127.0.0.1:8765

Desk density

Pace · defense hexbin

Synthetic league slice: filter by form window and conference, then read cell density like the Apache ECharts custom hexbin example — adapted here for a sports-style leaderboard workflow (not live odds).

Trending prediction markets

Predictions desk — same card rhythm as the Game console

Train stays static on GitHub Pages; the companion Game Next app hosts the interactive strip and merged /live (μgrad + Bloomberg). Product reference: Coinbase Predictions. Minors context: Baller League US.

Train live analysis ← Directory home

Sector outlook

Where prediction liquidity is clustering right now

Across regulated event-contract venues (Coinbase Prediction Markets, powered by Kalshi), trending flow still skews heavily into sports — especially NBA playoffs, championships, and other major leagues. That concentration matters for anyone thinking about near-term edge: depth, spreads, and how fast markets resolve.

Contracts trade like yes/no shares (e.g. ~$0.65 implying ~65% implied probability, paying $1 if the event resolves yes). Categories span Sports, Crypto, Politics, Economics, Entertainment, Companies, Science & tech, and more — but activity is not evenly distributed.

Open Coinbase Predictions →

Why sports often leads for near-term “wins”

Not a promise of profit — just the structural reasons desks route flow here during playoffs and championship windows.

Volume & liquidity Trending boards are often dominated by NBA (champion, conferences, high-stakes games), golf, hockey, soccer, baseball, UFC, cricket, F1, and similar. Some single games show very large 24h notional. Deeper books mean tighter spreads, easier size, and less slippage.
Resolvable cadence Short horizons — games, series, props — give fast feedback loops compared with multi-year political or macro markets. You can react to lineups, injuries, and in-play information with clearer settlement rules.
Crowd vs. domain edge Public narratives (favorites, recency, storylines) can over- or under-shoot fair odds. Traders with structured models or deep domain read sometimes find repeatable disagreement versus consensus — the classic “information edge” story in prediction markets.
Partial independence from risk assets Sports outcomes are not the same thing as S&P or BTC direction; they can decorrelate from broad risk-on/off, even if macro sentiment occasionally bleeds into discretionary flow.

Other verticals worth watching

Crypto

Price milestones & buckets

High mindshare with Coinbase-native users; often more volatile and more correlated with spot crypto. Can reward specialists who track flows, funding, and on-chain context — but path risk is real.

Politics

Elections & nominations

Can print large notional on long-dated questions (e.g. 2028 fields). Slower resolution and more narrative/polarization risk; liquidity can cluster on a handful of flagship markets.

Economics

Fed, inflation, prices

Scheduled data releases and well-defined calendars suit model-driven traders who like macro baselines — but surprises and revision noise still dominate short windows.

Rest-of-month sector estimates (illustrative statistics)

Each sector row expands to an illustrative top 5 contract basket for the rest of the month. Summary bars show flagship mids vs. a crude reference fair, gap (pp), 80% CI on the gap, liquidity, and RoM yield index — all normalized for teaching; not scraped from Kalshi or Coinbase.

Window label: calendar remainder of current month · Regenerate monthly in your own data pipeline when you wire APIs.

Highest illustrative RoM yield index: Sports (100) vs. next sector Crypto ( 86) — about +16.3% higher on this normalized scale (not dollars of profit).

Look for mispricings: compare Coinbase/Kalshi implied odds to bookmakers, polls, or models. Buy undervalued probabilities and sell overvalued ones (or exit early).

Coinbase Predictions Kalshi

Illustrative rest-of-month sector statistics. Each sector expands to show the top five synthetic contracts in that vertical.

Sports Mid 61.0% · Ref 57.0% · Gap + 4.0 pp · CI ±1.6 100.0% of leader Top 5

#	Contract (illustrative)	Mid %	Ref %	Gap (pp)	Vol tier
1	Pro basketball champion (flagship)	62.0	58.0	+ 4.0	Heavy
2	Conference finals game 7 — moneyline favorite	58.0	55.0	+ 3.0	Heavy
3	Stanley Cup series — series price	54.0	52.0	+ 2.0	Active
4	Golf major — top-10 finish (market leader)	41.0	44.0	-3.0	Active
5	Soccer UCL — advancement leg	49.0	50.0	-1.0	Thin

Crypto Mid 52.0% · Ref 49.0% · Gap + 3.0 pp · CI ±2.4 86.0% of leader Top 5

#	Contract (illustrative)	Mid %	Ref %	Gap (pp)	Vol tier
1	BTC / $100k milestone (windowed)	51.0	47.0	+ 4.0	Heavy
2	ETH / merge milestone follow-on	44.0	42.0	+ 2.0	Active
3	Major alt — ETF catalyst basket	38.0	40.0	-2.0	Active
4	Stablecoin depeg watch (illustrative)	12.0	9.0	+ 3.0	Thin
5	Reg headline — venue policy risk (stub)	33.0	35.0	-2.0	Thin

Economics / macro Mid 44.0% · Ref 46.0% · Gap -2.0 pp · CI ±1.1 71.0% of leader Top 5

#	Contract (illustrative)	Mid %	Ref %	Gap (pp)	Vol tier
1	Fed funds path — next meeting cut/cut skip	46.0	48.0	-2.0	Active
2	CPI print vs. consensus band	52.0	51.0	+ 1.0	Active
3	Payrolls surprise threshold	39.0	41.0	-2.0	Thin
4	Gas retail — regional average (RoM)	28.0	30.0	-2.0	Thin
5	Core PCE — revision risk window	44.0	43.0	+ 1.0	Thin

Politics / elections Mid 38.0% · Ref 41.0% · Gap -3.0 pp · CI ±2.0 64.0% of leader Top 5

#	Contract (illustrative)	Mid %	Ref %	Gap (pp)	Vol tier
1	Primary field — next dropout (illustrative)	36.0	39.0	-3.0	Active
2	Debate performance — instant reaction contract	48.0	46.0	+ 2.0	Active
3	Cabinet / agency headline — resolution window	22.0	24.0	-2.0	Thin
4	Swing-state poll aggregator vs. mid	55.0	54.0	+ 1.0	Thin
5	Ballot measure — signature threshold	31.0	33.0	-2.0	Thin

Entertainment Mid 55.0% · Ref 54.0% · Gap + 1.0 pp · CI ±2.8 59.0% of leader Top 5

#	Contract (illustrative)	Mid %	Ref %	Gap (pp)	Vol tier
1	Award season — best picture front-runner	57.0	55.0	+ 2.0	Active
2	Streaming premiere — opening weekend (stub)	42.0	43.0	-1.0	Thin
3	Box office — domestic floor vs. tracking	49.0	48.0	+ 1.0	Thin
4	Music chart — #1 single window	35.0	37.0	-2.0	Thin
5	Reality finale — elimination order (illustrative)	61.0	59.0	+ 2.0	Thin

Companies Mid 48.0% · Ref 50.0% · Gap -2.0 pp · CI ±2.2 55.0% of leader Top 5

#	Contract (illustrative)	Mid %	Ref %	Gap (pp)	Vol tier
1	Mag7 — next earnings beat / miss (toy)	47.0	49.0	-2.0	Active
2	IPO pop — first week range	33.0	31.0	+ 2.0	Thin
3	M&A close — regulatory approval	54.0	55.0	-1.0	Thin
4	Product launch — pre-order threshold	41.0	42.0	-1.0	Thin
5	Dividend / buyback announcement (RoM)	29.0	30.0	-1.0	Thin

Science & tech Mid 41.0% · Ref 43.0% · Gap -2.0 pp · CI ±2.5 48.0% of leader Top 5

#	Contract (illustrative)	Mid %	Ref %	Gap (pp)	Vol tier
1	Launch window — mission success (stub)	44.0	46.0	-2.0	Thin
2	AI benchmark — headline leaderboard bet	51.0	49.0	+ 2.0	Active
3	Clinical readout — primary endpoint	37.0	39.0	-2.0	Thin
4	Weather — named storm landfall (seasonal)	26.0	27.0	-1.0	Thin
5	Space debris / policy headline (illustrative)	18.0	17.0	+ 1.0	Thin

Desk habits (informational)

Anchor on expertise — sports analytics, on-chain crypto, polling + fundamentals for politics, or macro nowcasts for economics — instead of trading every vertical at once.
Compare implied probabilities to independent references (books where legal, models, base rates). Think in terms of mispricing vs. consensus, not “directional hot takes.”
Size for binary risk: contracts can go to zero; use bankroll rules. Prefer deep, trending books when you need to move size.
U.S. access is constrained (state rules, waitlists). Funding is typically USD / USDC on-platform; always read the venue disclosures — Train is not a broker.

Industry reporting sometimes attributes an outsized share of notional to sports-heavy periods (e.g. large single-sport shares on Kalshi in some windows). Trending tabs move quickly — check the live app for current books.

Custom wind-style field inspired by Apache ECharts custom-wind — static ornament only.

Illustrative numbers, sector commentary, and the rest-of-month expandable sector rows are for education only — not trading advice, not live Kalshi/Coinbase data, not a quote, and not an investability signal. Contracts can expire worthless; venues have eligibility and geographic rules. Set PUBLIC_GAME_CONSOLE_URL at build time for header + outbound Game links.